Draws in a sit n go hold'em tournament are those faint glimmers of hope that can lure you into swimming towards the bottom of the lake, when you should be swimming in the opposite direction towards the surface. Too often, that faint glimmer fades. And, you find yourself out of breath, out of juice, and a long way from help. So it often goes with most poker draws, even with the potent 15-outers. But, enough of the allegory. Let's get down to the facts.
We all know the definition of a drawing hand. One that has little or no showdown value starting out, but could improve to a winning hand depending on the board cards. A redraw describes a made poker hand that has probably become beaten, but still has outs to improve to the winning hand. Draws are a common, integral occurrence in poker.
Here is a typical situation. Say your starting hand is 9s-Ts, a nice suited connector drawing hand. On the flop, comes a 7s-8s-Td. At this point, you would probably be holding the winning hand with top pair, and a decent kicker. Plus, you hold great redraws to a straight, a flush, and a straight flush.
But, then the turn brings the Ad. Based upon your read of your opponent and the betting action, you feel that you are now behind to a better hand, possibly an A-x top pair. Or, even an A-T, top two-pair. However, you know that all is not lost. Because, you have redraws to a straight (8 outs), to a flush (9-2=7 outs), to trips (2 outs), and to two-pair (3 outs). Any of which would likely give you the winning hand on the river. And, of course to a straight flush which would be the absolute nuts.
But, not all of these outs are bona fide. In some cases, you could be drawing dead:
If your opponent holds A-T, your two-pair draw would be no good.
If he holds 9-J, then you either lose, or only split the pot, with your straight draw.
If he holds As-xs, then your flush draw is no good.
If he holds 7-7, or 8-8, then your trips and two-pair draws are no good. And,
If he holds T-T, then you have no trips draw, and again your two-pair draw is no good.
So, in these scenarios, drawing dead means that:
In making your draw hand, your hand is still beaten by your opponent's made hand. Or,
In making your draw hand, your draw card improves your opponent to a better hand.
Now, the question becomes, how should you proceed with this example hand? Assuming that you have the correct pot odds to call an opponent's turn bet, and you likely would with so many outs (as many as 20, but in reality much less). Do you make the call if losing the hand would mean your tournament elimination?
Think about it. There are a number of considerations. So, for a moment let's play devil's advocate:
What if you have misread your opponent's hand? What if he flopped the nut straight, or a set? He then counterfeits some of your outs. And, your opponent likely wins.
What if you both improve with the river card? In that event, your opponent wins.
What if you do not improve? Then, your opponent likely wins.
What if the actual deck is cold? That is, what if most of your out cards were dealt to the other players? Remember that virtual outs are merely hypotheticals. They may not actually exist. In other words, if my decision would place my tournament life in the balance, then I would weigh heavier my read of my opponent and the betting action, over the virtual, and possibly non existent outs. So, if the deck is cold or poor in your out cards, your opponent likely wins.
What if you take the risk, win the hand, but are eliminated in the next. The point is that you cannot win the tournament in one hand. But, you can be eliminated. Meaning that when the option is available, severe risk should be trumped by survival. Stated differently, why risk survival for a one time gain that does not guarantee over all survival?
When you play a drawing hand, these are the type of complex situations that you will often be entering. So, how do you simplify the situation? How do you unravel the complexities to expose a clear path? Here are some general guidelines for playing a drawing hand in a fast sit n go tournament:
If your tournament survival is dependent upon winning the pot, take the risk. That is, if you are a desperate short stack, given the example hand, then shove preflop, or definitely on the flop.
If your stack is average or better, then keep the pot small. In the above hand example, there are too many red flags to be risking too many chips. Check-calling or check-folding are the prudent options.
Basically, when playing a drawing hand, keep the pot small until you have something. There may be tactical reasons to sometimes bet the come (which builds a larger pot), such as bluffing or misdirection. But they are few, especially when out of position. The general goal with a draw is to make your hand for cheap, then to build the pot. Not, vice versa. If the going gets expensive, get out.
Note that this discussion does not take into consideration the odds of making a draw, or the pot odds for a profitable call. Indeed, these are important considerations. Especially in a limit ring game. But, because of implied odds, perhaps a little less important in a no-limit ring game or tournament. And, almost unimportant in a fast, no-limit, single table tournament.
In a fast single table sit n go, chasing a draw is rarely worth the risk. While the virtual odds to improve your hand might be good, even above average, they are never in your favor. In fact, they are usually decidedly against you. Not to mention, that the actual odds might be absolutely against you.
And, even though the pot odds might indicate a long term profitable call, this is not a long term proposition. Instead, your drawing hand could become a one time, all or nothing, do or die gamble for your tournament life. The difference is that we are not seeking to grind out a marginal profitability over a long series of repeatedly similar situations. Where, such as in a ring game, we will win some and lose some, but end up a few dollars ahead.
Instead, in the fast sit n go setting, we should be seeking to engage in only those situations where the outcomes are predictably and significantly weighted in our favor. The limited number of starting chips in a sit n go are just too difficult to replace. If you lose with a drawing hand, and you usually will, you cannot simply buy more chips. Plus, the amount of time available for recovery of lost chips runs out too quickly.
So, chip risks must be limited. And, one good way to limit risk is to avoid all but the best and cheapest of draws.
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